The recession spared few U.S. cities, wiping out 9.4 million jobs between November 2007 and August 2009. Many will never return, and those that do you probably won’t find on the East or West Coast. For the most active areas of job creation (and lower costs of doing business) you have to go to the heartland, home to 80% of the top 25 regions on our list of Best Places for Business.
In most of these hot hubs you’ll find a strong university or two, providing rich cultural life and the kind of technology transfer that sparks entrepreneurial activity—giving that educated population lots of reasons to stick around.
Topping our 13th annual list of the Best Places for Business and Careers is Raleigh, N.C. It is one of those locales with a strong university presence helping fuel growth in the area (albeit in an East Coast state, a rarity in the upper part of the list). Raleigh and nearby Durham (ranked No. 31) get a strong boost from three elite schools in the surrounding area in University of North Carolina, Duke University and North Carolina State.
Raleigh ranks No. 1 after dipping to third last year. Low business costs (18% below the national average) and a smart labor force (42% have a college degree) make North Carolina’s capital an attractive spot for employers like First Citizens Bank and Progress Energy. Job seekers get it: The net migration rate to Raleigh was the second highest in the U.S. over the past five years.
Our look at America’s Best Places for Business showcases the stark contrast between Texas—with its low-cost, pro-business regulatory environment (5 cities among the top 25, led by Austin at No. 7)—and overregulated and wildly expensive California (home to 8 cities that rank in the bottom 25, including No. 200 Merced). Texas was one of the last economies to succumb to the recession and one of the first to bounce back, while California is limping along with an unemployment rate of 11.7% (only Nevada’s is worse).
Besides Austin, Texas also placed San Antonio and Dallas in the top 10. San Antonio, ranked No. 8, is among the fastest-growing metro areas in the U.S. (the population increased 25% since 2000). It has been buoyed by defense spending and hiring at Toyota Motor’s truck assembly plant. Dallas (No. 10) has been one of the most resilient economies during the recession and could add 190,000 jobs in the next three years.
It’s not all bad in the Golden State. Aside from nice weather, California does have bright spots in San Jose (No. 35) and San Francisco (No. 37), both of which made the top 40 thanks to a rich arsenal of educated and talented workers.
Demographer Bert Sperling argues that much of the recent success of the heartland can be attributed to “extractive industries” like oil, gas and mining as well as record-high crop prices that have provided jobs and revenue to the center of the U.S. “These economies run in cycles, and these booms and busts are often decades in the making,” he says.
Our ranking of Best Places looks at the 200 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. These range in size from the New York City metro, with to 11.6 million people, to Laredo, Texas, home to 252,000 people (click here for a list of the Best Small Places for Business). We consider 12 metrics relating to job growth (past and projected), costs (business and living), income growth, educational attainment and projected economic growth.
We also factor in quality of life issues like crime rates, cultural and recreational opportunities and net migration patterns. Lastly we included the number of highly ranked colleges in an area per our annual college rankings. A tip of the cap to Moody’s Economy.com, which provided much of the data, including the economic forecasts. Bert Sperling, founder of Sperling’s BestPlaces, put together a culture and leisure index for Forbes and also crunched the crime numbers for us. College attainment data is compiled by the Census Bureau.
Des Moines, Iowa, last year’s No. 1 dropped one spot as employment fell 0.9% in 2010. The area still has plenty to offer with business costs 16% below the national average and household incomes that are expected to increase 4.2% annually through 2013, eighth best in the U.S. Workers at big employers like Principal Financial and Wells Fargo enjoy cheap housing (median price $148,600) and 20-minute average commutes.
Another big metro that made the top 10, in addition to the three Texas locales, is Denver, which ranks No. 9. U.S. economic growth has been tepid since the recession ended, but Denver’s economy grew 3.9% last year and is expected to grow 3.9% annually through 2013 according to Economy.com. Denver’s great quality of life and educated workforce make it a favorite with companies in industries from aerospace and bioscience to energy, financial services and information technology. Major employers include IBM, Lockheed Martin and Wells Fargo.
A big mover in the rankings this year is the New York metro, which ranked No. 45, up from No. 99 in 2010. Yes it is still the most expensive place to do business in the U.S. at 51% above the national average, but the job and economic forecasts are much improved for the area. The economy is forecast to expand 4.5% per year and household income are expected to increase 4.1% annually the next three years, 12th best in the U.S.
New York also scores well on quality-of-life issues. It ranks first on Sperling’s index among cities for culture and recreation, and its crime rate is 11th-lowest in the country. The biggest draw might be its talented, educated work force with 36% having a college degree–only Washington, D.C. is higher among the 10 largest metros. The concentration of big firms is unmatched as well. It is the corporate home for 80 public companies with more than $1 billion in sales. ]]>
In Freddie Mac’s results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), the average fixed mortgage rates at or near their all-time lows. The 30-year fixed matched the average all-time record low of 3.94 percent, and a new all-time record low was set for the 15-year fixed, both previously set in the October 6, 2011 Freddie Mac PMMS. The 5-year ARM also set a new all-time record low at 2.86 percent for the week.
- 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.94 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending December 15, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 3.99 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.83 percent.
- 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.21 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.27 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.17 percent.
- 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.86 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.93 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.77 percent.
- 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.81 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.35 percent. Quotes attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
“Mortgage rates were at or near all-time record lows this week amid a rough environment for housing. In its December 13th monetary policy announcement, the Federal Reserve reiterated the housing market remains depressed. Over the first nine months of 2012, households lost almost $400 billion in property values which contributed to a $1.4 trillion reduction in overall net worth. In addition, serious delinquency rates (90 or more days delinquent plus foreclosures) on mortgages increased slightly between June 30 and September 30 of the year, breaking a six-quarter consecutive decline, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.”
Published: December 16, 2011
Foreclosures on N.C. homes fell 28.7 percent in April from a year ago, but rose 13.9 percent from March.
Some 2,784 N.C. homes were in foreclosure proceedings in April, or one in every 1,530 households. North Carolina ranks 37th in the nation for the rate of filings, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
Foreclosures nationwide dropped 34 percent from April 2010 and fell 8.6 percent from March. There were 219,258 filings last month across the nation, or one in every 593 households.
“Foreclosure activity decreased on an annual basis for the seventh straight month in April, bringing foreclosure activity to a 40-month low,” says James Saccacio, chief executive of RealtyTrac. “This slowdown continues to be largely the result of massive delays in processing foreclosures rather than the result of a houseing recovery that is lifting people out of foreclosure.”
Nevada continues to lead the country in foreclosures, with one in every 97 homes receiving a filing. The state had 11,761 residential properties in foreclosure in April.
In contrast, Vermont had the lowest frequency with five filings.
]]>RALEIGH, N.C. – The Triangle MLS, Inc. (TMLS) announces the following information relating to houses listed and sold within the MLS system during February of 2011. Data stated below are for houses located in the entire triangle region. The percentage changes are comparisons with data from the prior year’s month unless otherwise noted.
Sales in the entire TMLS system maintained a slight reduction over last year with just 30 fewer sales for a total of 1,150 units or 2.5 percent less than February of 2010. Total homes closed for the month of February for Wake County were 598, which was 27 under last February.
Among important factors affecting the data is that January and February are traditionally the slowest months of the year. Another important issue to keep in mind is that one year ago the Federal Government extended tax credits for home buyers through June of 2010, which stimulated sales. Without those incentives in 2011, there is a decrease in most sales categories.
Both the median sales price for February ($178,240) and the average sales price ($211,661) increased over the prior year by 4.2 percent and 2.3 percent respectfully. Another positive indicator showed the percent of original list price received increased slightly over February of 2010 to 95.9 percent.
Other indicators showed the number of new listings for the month decreased by 16.4 percent from last year, yet the average days on market (time it takes for the average house to sell) increased by 15.2 percent. The total inventory of homes available for purchase was 16,632, also down 6.4 percent from the previous year. The Months’ Supply of Homes for Sale had a 5.0 percent increase to 9.9 months.
The Housing Affordability Index decreased less than 1 percent and continues to remain at record levels. This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 would mean the median household income was 120 percent of what’s necessary to qualify for the median priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number results in a more affordable housing market. The February index was 182.
National Real Estate News
Home Prices Off to a Dismal Start in 2011
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
New York, March 29, 2011 – Data through January 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its
S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show further deceleration
in the annual growth rates in 13 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to the
December 2010 report. The 10-City Composite was down 2.0% and the 20-City Composite fell 3.1% from
their January 2010 levels. San Diego and Washington D.C. were the only two markets to record positive
year-over-year changes. However, San Diego was up a scant 0.1%, while Washington DC posted a
healthier +3.6% annual growth rate. The same 11 cities that had posted recent index level lows in
December 2010, posted new lows in January.
The full report can be viewed by clicking the link below:
]]>On conventional 30 year fixed loans Best Execution has risen to 5.00%. FHA/VA 30 year fixed home loans are now best priced at 4.875%. If you’re shopping for a 15 year fixed mortgage rate, the sweet spot is 4.25%. On 5-year ARMs, very well qualified borrowers are still being quoted rates as low as 3.50%.
Plain and Simple: this is the first time since mid-December that the Best Execution 30 year fixed mortgage rate has not been 4.875%.
Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: Loan originators will only be able to offer these rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the “perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more expensive. “No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t forget the intense fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process
“Bext Execution” is the most efficient combination of note rate and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%. When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must have an idea of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask you originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis” on your permanent rate buydown costs.
As far as how that might affect your strategy will be up to you. The most important thing to understand is that if the report is very strong, then rates can get much worse, very very fast. We’re talking 5.25% “best execution” in a matter of days.
Because so much of it still applies so well, here’s what we wrote last month.
If you are currently being quoted a rate that would reduce your monthly loan payment (enough to be worth the hassle of refinancing), the intermediate term direction that mortgage rates take is largely dependent on this jobs report and revisions to the previous data.
Floating into and through this economic data release is a high risk event. Which means the best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rate could move 0.25% to 0.375% higher.
What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates recovery?
1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not recover as much as you want/need.
2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not recover as fast as you want/need.
3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready for MORE VOLATILITY in the bond market.
Rates are at their worst levels since mid-December. This happened because the bond market is expecting a strong jobs report tomorrow. If mortgage rates do bounce back tomorrow, we are still facing an uphill battle and there’s no guarantee borrowing costs would continue to improve. If they go worse, it’s possible they’d get way worse very very fast!
If you are considering refinancing or shoping for a new loan, please send me an email at kevin@kevinmcvicker.com and lets schedule time to analyse your situation. Now could be a very good time to lock in that low rate!
The National Association of REALTORS are a strong supporter of the bill. NAR President, Vicki Cox Golder is quoted as saying, “The short sale, which requires lender approval, is an important instrument for homeowners who owe more than their home is worth. While the lending community has worked to improve the size and training of their short sales staffs, they still have a long way to go on improving response times.”
This bill comes as welcome news to many homeowners who find themselves in a situation where they must sell their home and who owe more than the house is worth. Buyers will no longer be forced to endure extended waiting periods and in some cases never getting a response from the bank.
This legislation aims to “require the lender or servicer of a home mortgage, upon a request by the homeowner for a short sale, to make a prompt decision whether to allow the sale.” (Library of Congress)
In this bill, the terms “short sale” means the sale of the dwelling or residential real property that is subject to the mortgage, deed or trust, or other security interest that secures a residential mortgage loan that:
- will result in proceeds in an amount that is less than the remaining amount due under the mortgage loan; and
- requires authorization by the securitization vehicle or other investment vehicle or holder of the mortgage loan, or the servicer acting on behalf of such a vehicle or holder.
Ms. Golder continued, “Unfortunately, homeowners who need to execute a short sale are severely hampered because lenders (loan servicers) are unable to decide whether to approve a short sale within a reasonable amount of time. Potential homebuyers are walking away from purchasing short sale property because the lender has taken many months and still not responded to their request for an approval of a proposed short sale price. Many consumers have mentioned that the delay in short sale price approval exceeds 90 days, and in many cases never arrives.”
Hopefully, if this bill passes into law, homeowners will find relief from their mortgage woes, and will be able to sell their home without having to be foreclosed upon.
To follow the progress of this bill as it moves through Congress you can learn more by clicking on the link below.
]]>By M.P. MCQUEEN
Looking to snap up some investment properties on the cheap? You may want to consider Durham, N.C., Indianapolis and Huntsville, Ala. They are among the best places to invest now, according to a new report that ranks the best and worst markets for conservative residential-real-estate investors. Hard-hit Las Vegas and Orlando, Fla., are among the riskiest.
Local Market Monitor Inc., a Cary, N.C., firm that analyzes real-estate trends for lenders, builders and investors, compiled its first Investor Suitability Report using economic data through July 31 for 315 U.S. markets. The firm is best known for its housing-market forecasts, which use “equilibrium” home prices: what home values should be in relation to incomes, job growth and population. In its new report, it uses similar data to rank communities by their investment prospects, focusing on single-family homes.
Regions that rank highly for investment suitability are those where there is a low probability that home prices will fall further, says Local Market Monitor President Ingo Winzer. They are places where income is growing moderately; where employment is relatively stable because of a large percentage of jobs in health care, education or government; and where a relatively small share of jobs is in construction or financial services, which have been volatile. (Job losses in government and education tend to come later in an economic cycle, so some areas could be hit harder in coming months.)
The report, which excludes towns with fewer than 200,000 residents, focuses on price-appreciation potential instead of rental income, since falling home prices usually result in higher vacancy rates in apartment buildings and lower rents overall, Mr. Winzer says.
Good markets for conservative investors are those that already have stabilized and should yield average returns, Mr. Winzer says. Dangerous markets probably will see further price declines and have little potential for a turnaround because of poor local economies.
So-called speculative markets, by contrast, are those where prices could fall further, but which also have potential for greater appreciation of 3% to 5% annually after bottoming out—making them more suitable for investors with stronger stomachs. Local Market Monitor identifies Hagerstown, Md.; Jacksonville and Port St. Lucie, Fla.; Modesto, Calif.; and Myrtle Beach, S.C. as speculative areas.
In the best markets, home prices already are stabilizing. Durham, N.C., for instance, is home to Duke University and is near the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. Big companies like International Business Machines Corp., GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Nortel Networks Corp., as well as numerous biotech start-ups, have facilities at the nearby Research Triangle Corporate Park. About 40% of area jobs are in health, education or government, according to Local Market Monitor.
Haywood Davis, owner of a Century 21 real-estate brokerage in Durham, says home-sales volume in the area increased 13% last month over July 2009, though prices rose only slightly.
Some other metro areas with large percentages of relatively stable jobs and moderate growth include Knoxville, Tenn.; Lexington, Ky.; and Indianapolis.
Jason Moore, a 34-year-old auto-sales manager in Baltimore, took advantage of plunging home prices in his hometown of Indianapolis to snap up an investment property there—a brand-new four-bedroom, two-bath home—for $56,000 late in 2008.
Prices in Indianapolis were falling because of foreclosures and rising unemployment. Disappointed with their stock-market investments, Mr. Moore and his wife, Keisha, 32, decided to buy an investment property to add to their portfolio. The Indiana house is generating a positive cash flow of about $300 a month in rent after mortgage, insurance, taxes and fees, he says.
“It has been adding income, and the tax benefit has been helpful,” Mr. Moore says.
Yet in gambling-and-tourism-dependent Reno, Nev., home prices slid 50% from their market peak in 2006—and don’t seem to have bottomed yet. Mr. Winzer calls the city “frankly dangerous” for investors, along with Las Vegas and Naples and Orlando, Fla., because home prices are still tumbling and local economies are shaky.
John Burns, chief executive officer of John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. of Irvine, Calif., says he thinks Reno and Las Vegas have “overcorrected,” but he agrees prices could fall further.
Dana Hall-Bradley, a real-estate agent in Florida’s Orlando-Kissimmee area, near Disney World, says sales were up 39% last month over July 2009. But prices are still sliding because most sales involve so-called distressed properties—bank-owned homes or short sales, where lenders agree to sell properties for less than they are owed.
Investors, especially those from Canada, the U.K., Brazil and Venezuela, are buying vacation and retirement villas, condos and townhouses in the area, Ms. Hall-Bradley says, because prices already are 40% to 50% below what they were as late as 2007. Many are paying cash.
Condos are even cheaper. “Right now you can get a condo for $30,000 that was selling for $150,000 to $200,000 in 2005 or 2006,” she says.
Eamon Lavin of Locust Valley, N.Y., recently purchased three condo units and a single-family home in Celebration, a planned community outside Orlando designed by Walt Disney Co. Mr. Lavin, 43, says he knows prices could tumble further but he isn’t worried because he plans to rent out the properties for 10 or 15 years.
“I love the area, and I think it is going to come back,” he says. “I get more of a return on investment than putting it in a bank or anywhere else.”
]]>Raleigh’s population count crashed through the 400,000 barrier in 2009, according to new population estimates released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
North Carolina’s capital city, with 405,791 residents as of July 1, 2009, moved up a spot in the rankings, supplanting Colorado Springs as the 45th biggest U.S. municipality. Raleigh posted a population increase of 3 percent compared to the 2008 estimate of about 393,000.
For the decade, Raleigh added more than 117,000 jobs between 2000 and 2009 – the 10th largest gain in the United States over that period.
Durham’s population, meanwhile, is quickly catching up to Winston-Salem’s population with an estimated resident count of 229,174 in 2009 compared to Winston-Salem’s population of 229,828. Durham is the nation’s 85th largest city.
Cary’s population grew almost 6 percent in the past year with a population estimate of 136,600 in 2009. It ranked at No. 179 in country.
The U.S. Census Bureau‘s 2009 population estimates are calculated for every incorporated city, town and village across the nation.
Elsewhere in the Triangle, 2009 population estimates were the following:
Chapel Hill at 53,546 people.
Apex at 34,022 people.
Sanford at 29,922 people.
Wake Forest at 27,852 people.
Garner at 27,525 people.
Holly Springs at 21,743 people.
Carrboro at 18,368 people.
Fuquay-Varina at 17,905 people.
Clayton at 16,362 people.
Morrisville at 14,018 people.
Smithfield at 13,201 people, and
Knightdale at 10,157 people.
Charlotte still ranks as the state’s largest municipality with a population of 709,441 people, which ranks at No.18 in the country.
]]>Real Estate News
For the week ending May 29, 2010 our research of Raleigh, Durham and Charlotte neighborhoods identified new opportunities to acquire real estate at below market prices. These properties are Bank Owned distressed sales and VA foreclosures. The most interesting find this week turned out to be brand new homes located in Raleigh with prices in the $150′s. These homes are being sold for $40K less than their original price. Find out more about these new homes by visiting my web site. Just click on the link:
http://edit.cisdata.net/bin/web/real_estate/AR266340/HOTSHEET/Durham/1275142998.html
For help with any of these properties, please email me at kevin@kevinmcvicker.com !
Mortgage News
Home Buyer Tax Credit Extended for Military Personnel
To be a qualified “repeat buyer” or non first-time buyer and receive a tax credit for up to $6,500, a buyer must have lived in his or her current residence for five out of the last eight years. The rest of the requirements are generally the same as the $8,000 tax credit.
You served your country, let us serve you. If you or someone you know is looking to purchase a new home and may qualify for this incredible opportunity, please don’t hesitate to give us a call right away. I can be reached at 919-369-4926 or send an email to kevin@kevinmcvicker.com !
1. Low fixed rate financing – 4.5% for 30 years.
2. No mortgage insurance
3. Do Not need to be a veteran.
4. No property limit for investors
5. Low downpayment (5%)
For more details, click on this link https://va.equator.com/index.cfm?event=public.vaVendeePage and save in your favorites.
]]>